Bachmann's no Palin on the polling front

Michele Bachmann and Sarah Palin draw a lot of comparisons but there's one thing that's not really comparable between the two: their poll numbers. While Bachmann and Palin have similar numbers of voters with a favorable opinion of each of them, Palin's negatives in seven states we've polled over the last month are an average of 18 points higher. And while Bachmann's performance in those states against Barack Obama would be pretty much on par with how John McCain did in 2008, Palin does an average of 6 points worse than McCain did. In the long run as voters get to know her better it's possible Bachmann will become just as unpopular as Palin, but for now she doesn't have nearly the same amount of baggage.

Here's a look at their horse race numbers in the seven states we've polled since we started including Bachmann in all general election match ups:

State	Bachmann Relative to Obama	Palin relative to Obama	2008 Results
Florida	-9	-12	Obama +3
Montana	+6	+4	McCain +2
New Hampshire	-7	-15	Obama +10
New Mexico	-15	-20	Obama +15
Oregon	-18	-22	Obama +16
Pennsylvania	-7	-14	Obama +10
Texas	+3	-2	McCain +12
Average	Bachmann -7	Palin -12	Obama +6

-Bachmann does better than Palin against Obama in all seven states. Obama won the states by an average of 6 points in 2008 and Bachmann basically matches that, trailing by an average of 7 points. Palin meanwhile would be the biggest Republican loser since Barry Goldwater, lagging in this set of states by an average of 12 points.

Now let's look at their comparative favorability numbers:

State	Bachmann Fav (Net)	Palin Fav (Net)
Florida	36/37 (-1)	37/58 (-21)
Montana	34/40 (-6)	41/51 (-10)
New Hampshire	39/46 (-7)	31/62 (-31)
New Mexico	30/42 (-12)	31/61 (-30)
Oregon	30/40 (-10)	31/63 (-32)
Pennsylvania	34/41 (-7)	36/57 (-21)
Texas	39/36 (+3)	37/55 (-18)
Average	35/40 (-5)	35/58 (-23)

-Bachmann and Palin both average 35% of voters with a favorable opinion of them. But 58% view Palin negatively compared to just 40% for Bachmann. Bachmann's certainly not popular- but the door is still open for her with a lot of voters where it's pretty much been shut on Palin.

We're still finding in a lot of our polling that Palin is the most well liked potential GOP contender with Republican voters, even if she's not their top choice for the nomination. But Bachmann is more well respected and far less toxic, at least for now, to Democrats and independents. Either would probably be a disastrous nominee for the GOP, but Palin is on a whole different level from Bachmann.